View on GitHub <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nAnalysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nOBJECTIVE: Answer the question \u201d Is it profitable bets always on the favorite player? \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In order to answer this question we have to decide on some strategies to apply:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
STRATEGY 1: bets always on the favorite player with an odd <= 1.30<\/p>\n\n\n\n
STRATEGY 2: bets always on the favorite player with an odd <= 1.10<\/p>\n\n\n\n
STRATEGY 3: bets always on the favorite player (by odds) no matter what are the odds<\/p>\n\n\n\n
STRATEGY 4: bets always on the top10 ranking players when they are playing versus a player who is in ranking in 20th position or more<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s Start !!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before applying our strategies, let\u2019s calculate the total number of matches and which bookmaker offer us the best profit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Calculate the total number of matches:<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT COUNT(*) AS total_matches\nFROM atp_matches;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\nIn the dataset, we have the odds from 2 different bookmakers, BET365 and PINNACLE. We want to know which bookmaker offers us the best odds, so we can check who offers the best margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Calculate who offer the best margin:<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT\n\tROUND(AVG((100 \/ B365W) + (100 \/ B365L)),2) AS bet365_margin,\n ROUND(AVG((100 \/ PSW) + (100 \/ PSL)),2) AS pinnacle_margin\nFROM atp_matches;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\nMore the margin is small, more are the profits, if we imagine that we know who is the winner of the match in advance and we bet always on the winner player, we can see the Pinnacle offers us the best ROI.<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT\n\tROUND(SUM(10 * B365W),2) AS bet365_winnings,\n ROUND(SUM(10 * PSW),2) AS pinnacle_winnings\nFROM atp_matches;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\nPinnacle offers us the best return, so we’ll use it for our analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
STRATEGY 1: bets always on the favorite player with an odd <= 1.30<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT\n\t10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 OR PSL <= 1.30 THEN 1 ELSE NULL END) AS total_stake,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END),2) AS total_winnings,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END),2) - (10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 OR PSL <= 1.30 THEN 1 ELSE NULL END)) AS profit\nFROM atp_matches;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\nGrouping by year<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT\n YEAR(match_date) AS yr,\n 10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 OR PSL <= 1.30 THEN 1 ELSE NULL END) AS total_stake,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END),2) AS total_winnings,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END),2) - (10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.30 OR PSL <= 1.30 THEN 1 ELSE NULL END)) AS profit\nFROM atp_matches\nGROUP BY 1\nORDER BY 1 DESC;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\nSTRATEGY 2: bets always on the favorite player with an odd <= 1.10, the query it\u2019s the same as above, we have only to change all values of 1.30 with 1.10<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT\n\t10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.10 OR PSL <= 1.10 THEN 1 ELSE NULL END) AS total_stake,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.10 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END),2) AS total_winnings,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.10 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END) - (10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW <= 1.10 OR PSL <= 1.10 THEN 1 ELSE NULL END)),2) AS profit\nFROM atp_matches;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\nSTRATEGY 3: bets always on the favorite player (by odds) no matter what are the odds<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT\n\t10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW < PSL OR PSL < PSW THEN 1 ELSE NULL END) AS total_stake,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW < PSL THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END),2) AS winnings,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN PSW < PSL THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END) - 10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN PSW < PSL OR PSL < PSW THEN 1 ELSE NULL END),2) AS profit\nFROM atp_matches;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\nSTRATEGY 4: bets always on the top10 ranking players when they are playing versus a player who is in ranking in 20th position or more<\/p>\n\n\n
\nSELECT\n\t10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN (WRank <= 10 AND LRank >= 20) OR (WRank >= 20 AND LRank <= 10) THEN 1 ELSE NULL END) AS total_stake,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN WRank <= 10 AND LRank >= 20 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END),2) AS total_winnings,\n ROUND(SUM(CASE WHEN WRank <= 10 AND LRank >= 20 THEN 10 * PSW ELSE NULL END)\n\t\t- 10 * COUNT(CASE WHEN (WRank <= 10 AND LRank >= 20) OR (WRank >= 20 AND LRank <= 10) THEN 1 ELSE NULL END),2) AS profit\nFROM atp_matches;\n<\/pre><\/div>\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately for some players, the strategy to bet always on the favorite player is not profitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thanks for your time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Giulio Pulino.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As Sport Trader, one of the most common question that I receive from friends is ” What is the best strategy to win by betting? ” and the most popular is the one that betting always on the favorite player can guarantee a profit. Let’s demonstrate with data if this strategy is profitable, so next …<\/p>\n
Tennis Analysis<\/span> Read More »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/828"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=828"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/828\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":903,"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/828\/revisions\/903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giuliopulino.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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